Opinion: Latinos hold the key to higher education’s future

A year after the United States entered World War II, the American government launched the Bracero Program to address labor shortages that resulted when millions of men were drafted into the military. 

From 1942 to 1964, approximately two million Mexican workers came to the U.S. with regulated contracts, sustaining the American economy through agriculture and railroad maintenance long after the war ended.

Today, we stand on the brink of another major challenge—this time in higher education. 

For years, warnings about the future of colleges and universities have grown louder, with dire predictions broadcast in news reports and discussed at conferences. Educators are being told that a crisis looms, creating a climate of fear and urgency in a field already suffering from dwindling investment. The alarm continues to sound as college campuses across the nation close due to shrinking enrollment and declining state and federal funding.

Why is higher education facing such a crisis? Experts and analysts point to two main factors: eroding trust in institutions and the so-called "enrollment cliff."

While trust in higher education has declined, this distrust is part of a broader trend. 

According to the Pew Charitable Trusts, Americans are also losing faith in the federal government, mainstream media, science and even the church. Restoring confidence in education is not a burden educators can—or should—bear alone. It will take a collective effort across all sectors of American life to rebuild trust.

That leaves us with the enrollment cliff. The data tells a stark story: a declining U.S. birth rate means fewer and fewer college-age students. The National Center for Education Statistics reports a 15% drop in college enrollment between 2010 and 2021, resulting in 2.7 million fewer students. Analysts, including the Congressional Budget Office, predict that the number of Americans aged 24 or younger will continue to shrink over the next several decades. If these forecasts hold true, higher education is not facing a single cliff but rather a series of tidal waves threatening to pull colleges and universities under.

Should Americans be worried about campus closures? The danger to our already fragile economy is real. Some argue that declining numbers of college graduates could result in a worker shortage reminiscent of the post-World War II years.

Eighty-three years ago, American leaders recognized the crucial role Mexican workers would play in sustaining the economy through the Bracero Program. Today, we don’t need a new program to bring in temporary workers. We need to invest in the millions of Latino children already here.

While the overall U.S. population is aging, the Latino population remains young and growing. According to the Hispanic Research Center, as of 2023, Latinos make up a quarter of children nationwide. Nearly 40% of Latino children are between the ages of six and 12. The National Center for Education Statistics reports that between 2012 and 2022, the percentage of Hispanic students in public schools grew from 24% to 29%, while the number of non-Hispanic white students declined. In California, the figures are even more striking: the California School Boards Association reports that 54% of school-age children in the state are Hispanic.

While Latinos are earning college degrees at higher rates than ever before, disparities persist. In the 2021-2022 school year, only 27% of Latinos earned an associate degree or higher, compared to 44% of the general population. Simply increasing the number of Latino college graduates to match the national average would close this gap, stabilize and reverse declining enrollment trends. If Latino college completion rates rise to reflect national levels, colleges and universities will have the students they need to remain viable, and our economy will benefit from a well-educated workforce. The looming crisis can be mitigated—if we ensure that the upcoming generation of Latino children attends college and graduates at the same rate as their peers.

To achieve this, we must invest in preparing Latino students for higher education. Established student enrichment programs, like Head Start and AVID, need continued support. Newer initiatives like Project Impact at California State University, San Bernardino—which aims to increase the number of credentialed underrepresented minority teachers in K-12—must be expanded and funded.

Institutions that are not among the 600 Hispanic-serving institutions (which currently graduate over 60% of Latino college students) must prioritize attracting, retaining and graduating Latino students. They could start by looking at Excelencia in Education, a national leader in evidence-based practices, to support Latino student education and to see what works.

If declining enrollment due to demographic shifts is the greatest threat to higher education, then Latinos are—once again—our greatest hope.