As health care becomes more expensive, what’s next for Covered California and the Latinos who rely on it?

After 43 days, the federal government was reopened last week, ending the longest government shutdown in history. At the center of the shutdown was a fight over health care subsidies - tax credits that reduce monthly premiums for people enrolled in health plans participating in the Affordable Care Act (ACA), commonly referred to as Obamacare.

Ultimately, Democrats fighting for the extension of these subsidies walked away with not much to show for the shutdown. The subsidies were not extended and will expire at the end of this year, unless a mid-December vote proves in Democrats’ favor. In anticipation of the expiration of subsidies, Covered California, an in-state service that connects individuals with health insurers, has taken measures to fill the gap.

“Our mission, our values are that we want to reach every Californian and get every Californian covered,” said Covered California Executive Director Jessica Altman. “And every Californian includes our immigrant communities, including, in particular, a focus on the communities that are not getting covered at the same rates as other communities. That's where we want to spend more time, more care, go into the community, hear what the barriers are and do what we can to address them.”

Background

The ACA subsidies were rolled out in 2021 and enhanced existing tax credits for lower-income enrollees, and made it possible for middle-income consumers to qualify for the first time. The rule of thumb was that no individual was to pay more than 8.5% of their household income on their premium.

Now that those subsidies are expiring, monthly premiums are expected to rise by 97% on average for Californians, according to Covered California, and individuals making less than $62,600 will see premiums rise from $97 to $182 per month. 

Premiums are expected to go up 136% nationally and over 300% in some states, according to the Center for American Progress Action Fund, an advocacy group. 

A report from the UC Berkeley Labor Center found that nearly 70,000 Californians would become uninsured as a result of expired subsidies and increased costs. Additionally, the report showed that 1.5 million Californians who do maintain their coverage will pay an average of $967 more per year.

These higher prices are across the board, for all individuals who get their health insurance through the ACA, not just for those currently receiving subsidies.

California’s response

“Care comes in many forms to meet many needs – and California is committed to providing that care,” said Governor Gavin Newsom in a Nov. 18 statement announcing the release of $150 million to community-based health organizations. “The awards announced today are part of our work to improve access to more effective health care, to support locally-provided, tailored programs that meet the unique needs of each community across the state.”

The state legislature also allocated $190 million for Covered California in the 2026 budget to provide new tax credits for the program’s lowest-income enrollees, intended to mitigate premium increases, according to Altman. Many enrollees who are not on the lower end of the income scale will still see higher costs.

“I feel very privileged to live in a state that values health care and affordability, and the support of the governor and the legislature in doing that,” said Altman. “At the same time, the enhanced premium tax credits are $2.5 billion a year to California. So ($190 million) is not going to fill the hole that the federal government is leaving, but it will make a difference to a lot of people.”

Since Covered California began enrollment in 2014, over six million people have received their health insurance through the marketplace. As of early 2025, a record-high 1.9 million people were enrolled in the program.

Year after year, Latinos have had some of the highest enrollment numbers across ethnic groups. In 2024, Latinos made up 32% of new enrollees. The year before, Latinos accounted for 25% of enrollees. 

Despite having high rates of enrollment, Latinos are still the most likely to go uninsured. When Covered California looks at the rates of uninsured Californians, more than half are Latinos, and a disproportionate amount are immigrants, even though they qualify for tax credits and for Medi-Cal, according to Altman. 

Immigrants unsure of the resources they are entitled to can visit a dedicated webpage on the Covered California website. The webpage explains that most immigrants qualify for health insurance under the ACA and details how to apply.

“We want to be a source of truth and where people can go to understand what are those changes and what they mean for people and also to recognize the unique fears and questions that come from our immigrant communities,” explained Altman.

Open enrollment for the state’s marketplace is ongoing, and despite what she has heard described as a “fear pandemic” for immigrants debating if they can trust the program, Altman is assuring that it is a safe resource.

“I know it's a challenging year, but we really are here to help,” she said, adding, “whether you have a mixed immigration status household or (have) any questions like that, I really want to encourage people to come forward and at least talk to an enrollment partner.”