Harris lags in Latine support in California compared to other ethnic groups, polls say

As election day looms around the corner, the Latine vote is under a microscope as the largest ethnic minority voter block in the country. New polls show Harris lags in Latine support compared to other ethnic and racial groups in the state. 

With over 36 million Latinos eligible to participate in this year's election, 4.8 million are eligible to vote in California. According to a new University of California Berkeley study, Harris draws broad support from the state’s Black voters (72%) and Asian American voters (66%), but receives somewhat lower levels of support from Latino voters (54%) in the state. National polls show similar results.

The poll was administered online in English and Spanish between September 25th and October 1, 2024, among 3,045 Californians considered likely to vote in the 2024 November general election. Black and Latine voters had the highest rates of undecided voters, polling at 10% and 7% respectively.

While there is no definitive reason why Latine voters are polling behind other ethnic groups when it comes to the democratic nominee, it shows Latines are not a monolithic voter base for Democrats. 

It may also show a blindspot in the Harris campaign, as Latine voter outreach has been low nationwide. Recent national polls by UnidosUS, Entravision, and AltaMed revealed that more than 48% of Latino voters have not been contacted at all by either party or their candidates, and only 30% and 24% have reported outreach from the Democratic and Republican parties, respectively.

Latino men have been showing increasing levels of support for Donald Trump this election cycle. Trump has nearly erased Democrats' longstanding advantage among Hispanic men ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election trailing Harris by just 2 percentage points, according to an analysis of Reuters/Ipsos national polling.

Harris recently appealed to Latino men on Telemundo last week claiming she would work to bring more funds to community banks to help Latino men secure small business loans. “I know that Hispanic men often have more difficulty securing loans from banks,” said Harris, “because of their connections and the fact that things aren’t necessarily set up so that they will qualify.”

Those appeals may be too late for many Latines, not just men, as a potential aspect of the lack of support for Harris may reside in the level of disinformation they have been exposed to this year. Results from a September poll of 3,000 Latino adults in the United States by the Digital Democracy Institute of the Americas (DDIA), showed Latines are being exposed to disinformation on a day-to-day basis.

The poll showed that 37% of Latines polled were exposed to the false narrative that Harris is a communist. Of those exposed, 32% believed the claim. When voters were asked about the claim “Harris is a border czar who failed to fix the issue of immigration during her time as Vice President” the poll showed 40% of the Latine sample agreed with the claim. While the majority of Latinos polled did not subscribe to disinformation and misinformation, a significant number expressed high levels of skepticism or discernment regarding the veracity of various claims.

“We usually hypothesize that as the volume [of exposure] of disinformation around certain issues goes up the more they'll believe it,” Roberta Braga told Latino Times, founder and executive director of DDIA, “I think there's a threshold of belief. The people who would accept this disinformation already accepted it. And it doesn't seem to be the case that others are being brought into the fold.”

Braga’s findings may point to an underreported issue surrounding the Latine vote. A lack of significant voter outreach and prolonged exposure to disinformation could steer Latines opinions on candidates, especially if they already lean conservative. Despite this Braga thinks it's important to note that for them “the silver lining [is] that the majority of [Latines] are not believing disinformation. So that was the first thing that was surprising to me but I think a bit of good news.”