Opinion: Trump’s immigration actions and policies will not create more Latino Democrats

In Summer 2025, our media screens are filled with images of Latinos, young and old, standing up to Trump’s deportation machinery. It is a defiant and defining moment for Latinos. As a pro-immigrant partisan Democrat, I cannot help but think this is the beginning of the end of Trump’s presidency. 

Certainly, Latinos will turn this anger into action, voting in record numbers during the 2026 midterms. Certainly, Latino Republicans will finally abandon Trump and the Republican Party. Why would any Latino support a party and president who are openly waging a war of immigration attrition on our families and communities? 

I had these same feelings about Trump and the GOP in 2016, 2020 and 2024 and in each of these elections. Trump’s share of the Latino vote, however, increased. But things may be different this time around. 

As a political scientist, I am trained to set aside my ideological beliefs and base my conclusions on scientifically gathered evidence. So, what does existing data show us? 

A close examination of recent polling on Latinos has led me to reevaluate my assumptions about the effects of Trump’s second presidency on Latinos. At this moment, Trump’s presidency and immigration policies are not leading to a partisan realignment among Latinos. In other words, Trump and his immigration policies will not create more Latino Democrats. The data show that Latino Republicans and Latino Democrats are worlds apart when it comes to their attitudes toward Trump and immigration. 

In reviewing a recent poll of Latinos evaluating the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency, I was taken aback by the results of one of the questions. Latinos who voted for Trump were asked, “If you had to do it over again, would you still vote for President Trump?” 

Over 80% of Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 were standing by their man. Of course, less than 10 percent were rethinking their decision, but this hardly constitutes a mass defection. Bear in mind that this poll was taken prior to the street confrontations with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE )and one could argue that the drop in his support would have been steeper had the poll been taken after these events. But I am not convinced that this would be the case, considering that Latino Republicans see immigration issues differently than Latino Democrats.

In the poll, Latinos were asked about their support or opposition to policy issues the Trump administration was undertaking. Across most of these issues, a significant attitudinal divide exists between Latino Republicans and Latino Democrats.

The data show that Latino Republicans and Latino Democrats are significantly divided across the seven immigration policy proposals. For example, the smallest attitudinal gap (27-point difference) occurs on the question of ending birthright citizenship for children born to undocumented parents. In polling results, a 27-point gap is huge. Latinos do not have a unified position when it comes to Trump’s draconian immigration policies.

For years, I have been looking for the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back. What actions or policies could Trump and the GOP undertake that would cause a majority of Latinos to support the Democratic Party? Over the past weeks, I have watched Latino protesters take to the streets. I have seen images of our distinguished U.S. senator, Alex Padilla, forced to the ground and handcuffed because he had questions for the Homeland Security Secretary. ICE.’s actions and Senator Padilla’s manhandling were outrageous, and I assumed most Latinos would feel the same way. After all, the people being targeted by ICE and Senator Padilla are Latino. Unfortunately, polling data does not suggest that a Latino political realignment will emerge as a result of these and other immigration actions.

And yet, I remain hopeful. A political realignment can occur, but not because Republicans lose Latino supporters. Democrats must win them over. Trump’s actions and policies on immigration alone will not create more Latino Democrats. This is not to say that Latinos do not care about immigration. They clearly do, and the youth who took to the streets or engaged in other pro-immigration actions will become future political leaders like Alex Padilla. But for a growing number of Latino Republicans, Trump’s immigration actions are unlikely to turn them away from the GOP.

To win Latino voters across the ideological spectrum, the Democratic Party must once again become the party of hope or esperanza. Polls show that Latino Republicans and Democrats are more alike than different when it comes to their economic evaluations and outlooks. Both want better wages, inflation relief, affordable housing and healthcare. Democrats have an opportunity to win the hearts and minds of Latino voters decisively by fighting hard for the economic well-being of working-class Americans. This is not an original idea, but one that seems to have fallen out of favor among certain elite circles.