Here’s where we stand in the still uncertain governor’s race in California

Early results on Wednesday morning following the June 2 primary showed Republican Steve Hilton leading the California gubernatorial race with 27.8% of the votes counted, with former California Attorney General Xavier Becerra following closely behind with 25.4% of the vote and billionaire Tom Steyer trailing in third place with 19.6%.

It could still be days or weeks before we have an accurate final tally of the votes as county officials across the state continue the arduous task of verifying and counting every ballot. The Wednesday morning results for the three frontrunners mirrored their positions in the final polls that were released leading up to the primary election. 

The two candidates who ultimately receive the most votes will face off in the Nov. 3 general election, when voters will definitively decide who they want in California’s top office.

Once an underdog, now a frontrunner

Once a single-digit polling candidate, Becerra’s campaign has been one of an underdog. The former Biden administration cabinet member was one of the candidates that was urged to drop out by party leadership in March.

Becerra was also one of the candidates that was left out of a USC debate that was later canceled following public outcry over candidates of color being excluded.

The self-proclaimed “Becerra Era” took off after sexual assault allegations forced the now-former U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell's departure from the race. Polls in the weeks following Swalwell’s exit showed his supporters coalesced around Becerra. That, plus a sudden influx of social media support, helped Becerra rise to the top of the polls alongside Hilton.

Speaking like a man certain of advancing to the general election, Becerra told supporters Tuesday night “we will not be bought. We will not be bullied. And we are never backing down.”

He took the opportunity to double down on campaign promises, including investing in schools, delivering on affordable health care and housing and being “tight-fisted” with the state’s budget and taxpayer dollars.

Branded as a “safe” and experienced politician, Becerra has not escaped his 30+ years in politics without a scandal.

He alluded to “powerful forces aligned to darken our light” on Tuesday, seemingly referring to attack ads from Steyer and other opponents that called into question his record as former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary. 

A New York Times investigation found Becerra’s office mishandled the placement of 85,000 migrant children that resulted in those children, some as young as 12, being exploited by employers.

Becerra has also been marred by a financial scandal involving two of his former top aides who were charged with siphoning money from a dormant Becerra campaign account. One of Steyer’s final ads suggested Becerra could be next to be indicted, though he was never investigated.

Could our next governor be a Republican?

Wednesday morning’s early results showed Hilton, a Republican and immigrant from the United Kingdom, with the most votes out of all candidates — around 1.3 million.

A former Fox News host, Hilton immigrated to California in 2012. The Republican was endorsed by President Donald Trump and has embraced many of the president’s policies while insisting his relationship with the administration will be of benefit to California. He made a name for himself as a key political strategist for former U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, a member of his country’s conservative party.

Hilton was the frontrunner in most polls until Becerra ultimately broke through. Since then, the two had been flip-flopping between first and second place in the polls.

The Republican has been running on a promise to rid the state of “waste and abuse” which he says was created by years of a Democratic supermajority.

Will Steyer's millions pay off?

Steyer, while currently trailing behind, could still have a shot at one of the top two spots. Given that so many Democrats chose to vote late after seeing who was ahead in the polls, there is still a chance Steyer could have been those last-minute voters’ choice.

His success in the primary would be hinged, however, on receiving the majority of votes among the roughly 50% of ballots yet to be counted, according to a San Francisco Chronicle analysis. In what has been an extremely unpredictable race, this would not be the strangest thing to happen so far.

“This might take some time, but we’re feeling good,” Steyer told a crowd at a San Francisco election night party. “We’re going to wait until every ballot is counted. We’re going to give democracy time to work.

The climate activist poured over $213 million of his own money into his campaign, making it the most expensive in California history. In 2020, Steyer also ran an expensive, albeit short-lived, campaign for president.

The end of the road

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter and former L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa all released statements Tuesday night conceding the race. As of Wednesday afternoon, State Superintendent of Schools Tony Thurmond had not yet conceded.

“California is at an inflection point, and our representatives and my party need to start taking these challenges seriously,” Villaraigosa said in a concession statement.

In an X post, Mahan said “this is not the last time I will ask Californians to come together to fight for a better state.”

Porter, the only female candidate left in the race, said in a statement the focus is now on November, when “we will elect a Democrat as our next governor and Democrats up and down the ticket.”