California governor’s race wide open following Swalwell exit

California’s gubernatorial race was already highly contested before Rep. Eric Swalwell, poised to be the Democratic frontrunner, exited the race Sunday following sexual abuse allegations. With Swalwell out of the running, the race is once again wide open for the several Democrats vying for the top spot.

With half a dozen Democratic candidates still in the field just under a month before voters start receiving ballots for the June 2 primary, it is likely Swalwell’s departure will allow some of the other candidates to see a bump in polling numbers. The most likely beneficiaries, according to prediction markets and recent polling, will be billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer and former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter.

Swalwell suspended his gubernatorial campaign Sunday after the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN published allegations that Swalwell twice sexually assaulted a former staffer when she was too drunk to consent. The CNN story included three separate accounts from former staffers who claim to have been sexually harassed by Swalwell, who has since admitted to “mistakes in judgment,” while simultaneously denying the allegations.

Facing an expulsion vote in Congress, Swalwell announced Monday he was resigning from the House of Representatives, giving up a seat representing parts of the San Francisco East Bay he held since 2013.

Where do we go from here?

Only a month ago, top Democratic leadership was anxious about a “lockout” in the June primary, since California has a top-two system in which only the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary move on to the Midterm election in November. As these things go, the race has moved quickly in the last month and a Democratic lockout has become increasingly unlikely.

President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Republican Steve Hilton, who is consistently leading the polls, all but ensures a Democrat will secure one of the top primary spots. The president's endorsement will likely sway voters away from the other Republican candidate, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.

On the Democratic side, Swalwell’s exit also puts candidates in a much better position than they were in just a week ago.

An average of the four most recent polls, the last one published April 7 and just days before the explosive allegations came to light, shows Steyer and Porter on Swalwell’s heels. The four-poll average had Swalwell at 13.5%, Steyer at 11.8% and Porter at 10%. 

A new poll released Tuesday by SurveyUSA shows Steyer finishing first with 21% of the vote. The poll was conducted April 8-10 online on behalf of KGTV News 10 and the San Diego Union Tribune.

Hilton came second with 18%, followed by Bianco and Porter tied at 8%.

While former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra has seen an increase of social media support in the days since Swalwell’s exit, Steyer and Porter are still pulling significantly more support from left-leaning voters. Becerra got 4% on the SurveyUSA poll, while former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa got 5%.

Internal polling from the Steyer campaign, collected from March 31 through April 2, showed that 31% of Swalwell supporters listed Porter as their second choice and 25% chose Steyer.

Polymarket, an online prediction market, also shows individuals are literally betting on Steyer.

The site reflects real-time bets and as of Tuesday morning, Polymarket shows Steyer at overwhelming 64% odds to become California’s next governor. Porter comes in at 9% odds with San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, backed by much of Silicon Valley, at 11%.

KTLA 5 and Nexstar Media Group announced Monday that they have commissioned a new poll from Emerson College to finalize which candidates will be invited to an April 22 debate. The poll will be conducted in the field this week.