Latino voters in California worry about inflation and housing costs

A new research study shows Latino voters in the state view inflation and housing costs as the top issues facing them, giving way to an overall pessimistic view of California’s economy. Also increasingly pessimistic, Latinos who voted for Trump last year are starting to move back to Democrats.

Conducted by Tulchin Research and Tzunu Strategies, researchers polled 1,100 Latinos in the state on their biggest concerns, immigration enforcement and economic opportunity. More than in past years, 62% of Latinos had a negative view of the direction of the country. The study came in part from a desire to understand why so many Latinos shifted away from Democrats in the 2024 presidential election.

“If Latinos are moving to the right, and they stay that way, then Democrats are going to be in real trouble in terms of winning majorities in Congress and winning back the White House,” said Ben Tulchin, president of Tulchin Research. “So that's kind of where this project starts, as we first kind of get a handle on what happened in 2024, why Latinos shifted to the right so dramatically.”

Across 16 issues ranging from crime, taxes, the economy and immigration enforcement, inflation rose as the top issue Latinos are concerned about. 82% of voters said inflation is their top concern, followed by crime and violence and the price of gas, food and utilities.

Researchers spoke with 100 Latinos who voted for former President Joe Biden in 2020 and then voted for President Donald Trump in 2024 (swing voters) to get a clearer picture of how that subset is feeling. Of the swing voters, 94% said inflation was their biggest concern.

These concerns carried over to how Latinos feel about California’s economy, with 47% saying they have a poor view of things and 64% saying their personal financial situations are either fair or poor. 

Based on what researchers heard from voters during focus groups, Tulchin said, Trump’s campaigning on the economy and promising to lower prices on day one was a main motivator for Latinos who switched their vote from blue to red. Now, nearly a year into Trump’s second presidency, these voters are growing increasingly frustrated that prices have only gotten higher. 

“So it's really on both fronts of the economic frustration and immigration issue that these Biden-Trump voters are swinging back towards Democrats,” said Tulchin.

The subject of economic fairness was a sore subject among voters, with 63% saying the current economy is unfair to the working class and another 63% saying big corporations and the wealthy have too much power in both the economy and government, and their control should be reduced.

“One of the key themes, in my opinion, is fairness,” said Arturo Carmona, CEO of Tzunu Strategies and CALÓ News publisher, during a virtual press conference. “Fairness in the economic opportunity of this country, fairness in how systems operate, fairness in our immigration system and how communities are treated.”

Despite concerns over affordability in California, 42% of Latinos said they view Governor Gavin Newsom as the top figure working in the best interests of Latinos. 

Newsom has consistently hit back against the Trump administration via social media, has joined Attorney General Rob Bonta in filing dozens of lawsuits against the administration and has consistently spoken up about extreme immigration enforcement. The governor also cemented himself as a key figure in the Democratic fight against Trump during the Prop 50 special election, which he championed.

“Ultimately, the research tells us that Latino voters want action and consistency and an acknowledgement of the challenges that they face every day,” said Carmona. “Leaders who speak to those realities and who follow through will be best positioned to earn the trust of our community.”

Amidst the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown, the polled voters showed strong attitudes toward immigration enforcement tactics. 69% of Latinos said they feel they are being racially profiled, and of the swing voters, 59% said they felt Latinos were being targeted.

Democrat, independent and swing voters overwhelmingly opposed immigration raids in the workplace. 86% of the swing voters said they opposed these raids; the strong negative views of immigration enforcement among these voters show they are beginning to swing back to Democrats, said Tulchin.

Notably, the voters also showed overwhelming support for a comprehensive immigration reform package, which focused on a citizenship pathway for long-term undocumented residents and Dreamers, streamlining and shortening the naturalization process, reducing deportations to keep families united and investing in border security. 82% of all voters supported this kind of reform.

Tulchin said this response was surprising given how difficult it is for any issue to receive bipartisan support nowadays, let alone an issue as controversial as immigration.

“There is frustration both from the (Latino) left and the right of the immigration system … so a comprehensive reform, it's kind of the right time, right place, right moment for that policy because of what's going on with the ICE raids and the projection in the Latino community of that policy,” said Tulchin.

Looking forward to the 2026 Midterm Election, the study once again shows Latino voters aren’t a sure voting bloc for Democrats, but rather, they will support the party they feel listens to their concerns most and has a cohesive plan to make things better for voters.

“Latinos, you got to go and earn their vote,” said Tulchin. “Democrats can't take them for granted and I feel that they did the last cycle, and they paid a price, right? They lost the White House, they lost the House and Senate.” 

“But the fact is that ensuring you put a very effective economic message, that can communicate to Latinos, that you're going to make their life meaningfully better, that's important,” he added. “And then, Latino communities are feeling attacked, and want to see elected officials and candidates standing up for their community from these attacks.”