‘Crushing economy’ shaping Latino voters' midterm plans, polls show

Latino voters are consistently worried about economic issues and increasingly pessimistic about their economic future – attitudes that are shaping their decisions on which candidates and policies to support this November.

A new survey conducted by the Latino Community Foundation (LCF) and BSP research polled Latino voters in both California and Texas about their mindset heading into the midterm elections. The poll found that despite living in states often seen as total opposites, Latino voters are overwhelmingly concerned about the same issues, often regardless of political affiliation.

“There’s no question that the last 18 months have been very difficult ones for the community for a number of reasons, from overreach by ICE to a difficult economy… and this poll reflects that anxiety,” LCF CEO Julián Castro said during a Wednesday media briefing.

Pollsters surveyed 1,250 Latino voters in both California and Texas between Sept. 1-15. Of the California voters, 89% said they will probably or certainly vote this year, but 40% said they had not been contacted by any candidates or political organizations.

“I hope that if the political parties take something from the research ... It's that Latinos deserve to be reached out to,” Castro, the former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, said. “Overall, you have a community that is feeling the pressure of the economy, that wants to go in a different direction.”

Castro highlighted a “swing back in the narrative” following a large shift to Trump and Republicans in 2024. The new poll shows that Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024, especially in Texas, are now more aligned with progressive policies to solve their economic concerns and widely disapprove of the Trump administration's immigration enforcement policies.

Notably, Texas Latinos’ swing back to the left could present a huge problem for Texas leaders, who redistricted the state last year based on the outcome of the 2024 election.

“These data suggest a strong return to longstanding patterns of Latino vote preferences, which will have downstream effects on House districts in both states,” Gary Segura, principal and co-owner of BSP Research, said in a statement. “The economy and uncertainty about making ends meet have become a laser focus for this electorate.”

Economic concerns

Economic issues, including the cost of living and inflation, were reported as the most important issues in both states.

In California, 78% of voters said the Trump administration has not been effective in addressing inflation and cost of living; 74% of Texan Latinos said the same.

Half of the respondents in both states said they are not confident they can make ends meet in the next month, with nearly half in California saying they are pessimistic about their financial future.

“That is a real shift; we started seeing this pessimism … really in the past three years,” Sylvia Manzano, vice president of operations at BSP, said Wednesday.

“Latinos have largely been very optimistic about opportunities and the future, but the enduring nature of this crushing economy has really dampened that optimism," Manzano said.

A new Power California and Latino Decisions poll of Gen Z voters got similar responses: affordability was a top concern, with 87% saying cost of living is outpacing their wages. Voters said this problem is the top issue bringing them to the polls in November.

“As the November election approaches, young Californian voters are desperate for solutions to the worsening cost-of-living crisis they face,” said Saa’un Bell, executive vice president at Power California, in a statement. “Engaging them will depend on how closely political campaigns are listening to their concerns, and ignoring them is a fast track to losing.”

The Power California poll showed that, among different racial groups, Gen Z Latinos are generally the most pessimistic about the state’s direction and largely blame Trump for the cost-of-living crisis.

Policy positions

The LCF poll showed the majority of voters in both states are more likely to support candidates that take more progressive stances on a variety of issues. Requiring big corporations to pay their fair share in taxes and fund social services, heavily regulating artificial intelligence and reforming ICE received the most support in both states.

In California, 53% of Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 wanted to see ICE reform. That number was slightly higher in Texas at 57%.

The so-called “swing back” is reflected in Trump’s approval rating. 75% of California Latinos and 71% of Texas Latinos disapprove of the president’s performance. The Power California poll showed the exact same number of Gen Z Latinos, 75%, disapprove of the president.

Asked about their feelings toward Gov. Gavin Newsom, 62% of Latinos approved of his performance.

The Power California poll highlighted Gen Z Latinos as the group with the most distrust in elected officials, with only 35% saying they trust politicians to follow through with their promises.

California propositions

Californians will be presented with over a dozen statewide propositions on the November ballot. Pollsters asked about three of them in the LCF poll.

On Prop. 40, the one-time wealth tax on the state’s billionaires, 62% said they would support the proposition. These numbers come after a recent Public Policy Institute of California poll found only 52% of all likely voters would vote yes.

Prop. 39 would require a government-issued photo ID in order to vote. It has been framed by Democrats as an attack on voting rights. This proposition had the least support among Latinos, with only 47% saying they would support it.

Prop. 3 would make permanent the income taxes on the state’s top earners in order to continue funding education and healthcare. The tax raises anywhere between $5 to $15 billion a year and is otherwise set to expire in 2031.

56% of Latinos said they would vote ‘yes’ on the proposition. Prop. 3 had the highest rate of undecided voters at 27%.