Who is leading California’s gubernatorial race? Here's what the latest polls are saying

With about a year left until Californians go to the polls to vote for their new governor, polls are starting to show a Republican with a slight lead. California hasn’t elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger led the state from 2003-2011.

The crowded race of state officials looking to succeed Governor Gavin Newsom as he terms out next November ranges from former local and federal leaders to law enforcement officials.

Former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is joined in the race by former Rep. Katie Porter, State Superintendent Tony Thurmond, former State Controller Betty Yee and former U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) Xavier Becerra. The Republicans in the running are Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Fox News contributor Steve Hilton.

The latest UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll shows Bianco pulling slightly ahead in the race with 13% of registered voters saying they’d vote for him. The poll was conducted online in English and Spanish between Oct. 20-27. It’s important to note that at just over a year out from the election, 44% of voters were still undecided.

For a long time, Porter was seen as the frontrunner in the race. An August poll by Berkeley showed Porter leading Bianco 17% to 10%. The latest poll shows 11% of voters were still in favor of Porter.

Porter’s standing has slipped since a clip of her in a tense exchange with a CBS journalist during an interview came out on social media, which then prompted the release of a video clip from 2021 of Porter shouting at one of her staffers.

Becerra and Hilton trail Bianco and Porter at 8%, followed by Villaraigosa at 5%. Yee got 3% of the voters and 1% of voters said they’d pick Thurmond.

Bianco received the greatest support from voters in the Inland Empire, where he serves as Riverside County Sheriff.

Notably, the study points out Becerra is the only candidate whose “overall image rating is more positive than negative,” with 26% of voters having a favorable opinion of the former HHS Secretary.

Political insiders assumed Attorney General Rob Bonta and Sen. Alex Padilla would throw their hats in the ring. Both opted to sit this one out. 

Bonta was asked during a press conference announcing yet another lawsuit against the Trump administration if he was going to run for governor.

“This is the most important moment and most important job I’ve ever had,” said Bonta. “I want to give everything I have to it… I’m completely focused on being the best AG I can.”

Padilla, who many thought would become the clear frontrunner if he did join the race, announced during a press conference on Nov. 4 that he wouldn’t be running. Padilla was appointed to succeed former Vice President Kamala Harris. He is the first Latino senator to represent California.

“I choose not just to stay in the Senate, I choose to stay in the fight,” said the senator. “Because the Constitution is worth fighting for. Our fundamental rights are worth fighting for.”

Harris also shocked many by announcing in July that she would not be joining the race after months of debating the move. 

Despite staying out of this election cycle, she kept the door open for a future presidential campaign saying in a recent BBC interview “I am not done.”